A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers. ESRI WP597, September 2018

Managing the risk associated with uncertain load has always been a challenge for retailers in electricity markets. Yet the load variability has been largely predictable in the past, especially when aggregating a large number of consumers. In contrast, the increasing penetration of unpredictable, small-scale electricity generation by consumers, i.e. self-generation, constitutes a new and yet greater volume risk. Using value-at-risk metrics and Monte Carlo simulations based on German historical loads and prices, the contribution of decentralized solar PV self-generation to retailers’ load and revenue risks is assessed. This analysis has implications for the consumers’ welfare and the overall efficiency of electricity markets

Qualche riflessione sul lavoro irregolare = Some thoughts on irregular work. WP C.S.D.L.E. “Massimo D’Antona”.IT – 339/2017

The undeclared work is an ancient and complex phenomenon, that is widespread throughout all over the Country and in every product sector. It is one of the most challenging issues that Italy is facing in recent years, because it has a significant impact on the labour market and the welfare system. This essay aims to analyze the undeclared work starting from the difficulties of identifying and clearly defining the phenomenon: there are a lot of shades of irregular employment and this is even more evident in a comparative perspective between the various member States of the European Union. Furthermore, it is useful to look at the causes and the consequences through an overview of the empirical data. The second part of this article focuses on the essential activity of the National Labour Inspectorate in the light of its centenary history and the recent changes introduced by the Legislative Decree no. 149/2015, implementing the so-called Jobs Act. In particular, some considerations are devoted to the main tools to fight the undeclared work: the maxi sanction for “black work” and the suspension of the business activity. Is the Italian sanctioning system enough to counter this dangerous phenomenon? In order to achieve tangible results, the harmonization between direct and indirect measures could have an important impact, because it is necessary not only to fight against the irregular employment, but to ensure the right to work regularly

Qualche riflessione sul lavoro irregolare

The undeclared work is an ancient and complex phenomenon, that is widespread throughout all over the Country and in every product sector. It is one of the most challenging issues that Italy is facing in recent years, because it has a significant impact on the labour market and the welfare system. This essay aims to analyze the undeclared work starting from the difficulties of identifying and clearly defining the phenomenon: there are a lot of shades of irregular employment and this is even more evident in a comparative perspective between the various member States of the European Union. Furthermore, it is useful to look at the causes and the consequences through an overview of the empirical data. The second part of this article focuses on the essential activity of the National Labour Inspectorate in the light of its centenary history and the recent changes introduced by the Legislative Decree no. 149/2015, implementing the so-called Jobs Act. In particular, some considerations are devoted to the main tools to fight the undeclared work: the maxi sanction for “black work” and the suspension of the business activity. Is the Italian sanctioning system enough to counter this dangerous phenomenon? In order to achieve tangible results, the harmonization between direct and indirect measures could have an important impact, because it is necessary not only to fight against the irregular employment, but to ensure the right to work regularly. In order to achieve tangible results, the harmonization between direct and indirect measures could have an important impact, because it is necessary not only to fight against the irregular employment, but also to ensure the right to work regularly In order to achieve tangible results, the harmonization between direct and indirect measures could have an important impact, because it is necessary not only to fight against the irregular employment, but also to ensure the right to work regularl

Blockchain electricity trading using tokenised power delivery contracts. ESRI Working Paper No. 649 December 2019

This paper proposes a new mechanism for forward selling renewable electricity generation. In this transactive framework, a wind or solar farm may directly sell to consumers a claim on their future power output in the form of nonfungible blockchain tokens. Using the flexibility of smart contract code, which executes irrevocably on a blockchain, the realised generation levels will offset the token holders’ electricity consumption in near real-time. To elucidate the flexibility offered by such smart contracts, two ways of structuring these power delivery instruments are considered: firstly, an exotic tranched system, where more senior tokens holders enjoy priority claims on power, as compared against a simpler pro-rata scheme, where the realised output of a generator is equally apportioned between token holders. A notional market simulation is provided to explore whether, for instance, consumers could exploit the flatter power delivery profiles of more senior tranches to better schedule their responsive demands

Measuring Liquidity in Gas Markets: The Case of the UK National Balancing Point. ESRI Research Bulletin 2019/06

Liquidity is the ability to match buyers and sellers at the lowest transaction costs. Therefore, in a liquid market, executing a transaction over a short-time horizon does not imply higher costs than spreading the same transaction over a longer horizon. Policymakers and practitioners traditionally use the churn ratio to measure liquidity in gas markets. The churn ratio is the ratio of traded volume to actual physical delivery. However, this measure does not consider the impact of trading activity on prices. This research focuses on applying different measures of liquidity, which are used in financial markets, to measure and assess the impact of trading activity on prices. The UK National Balancing Point (NBP) is used as a case study, since it is the most mature hub for gas trading in Europe. Therefore, conclusions from this study can be extended to other gas markets. The research shows that a positive correlation exists between trading activity and prices in the market. However, the strength of this correlation changes over time, depending upon market conditions. Specifically, in the presence of oversupply the impact of trading activity on prices is lower, thus implying that trading a high amount of gas is less expensive, and liquidity is high. Consequently, risk management costs are also less expensive

Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets. ESRI Research Bulletin 2019/08

This research evaluates the potential effects for consumers in both Ireland and the UK of two new natural gas projects. The first project is an Irish Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility to import gas, such as the Shannon LNG facility in Co. Kerry; the second project is an Irish natural gas facility to store gas for later consumption, such as the Islandmagee Underground Gas Storage facility in Northern Ireland. Both projects have been proposed by the EU as key European Projects of Common Interest to integrate Europe’s energy markets and diversify the supply of energy sources

LNG and gas storage optimisation and valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets. ESRI WP606, December 2018

To guarantee European countries with greater access to competitive energy sources, the European Union has identified new infrastructures for the achievement of a diversified, secure and affordable European single energy market. This paper aims to evaluate the impact on consumers' energy bill of new LNG and gas storage facilities. We focus on the integrated UK-Ireland gas system, which provides an interesting framework to assess socioeconomic benefits of new energy routes. We utilise a stochastic mixed complementarity problem model, which also incorporates stochastic gas supply cost and demand scenarios. Therefore, we assess the expected benefits for consumers of a diversified gas supply, and their sensitivity to changing market conditions. Our results imply the complementary of LNG and gas storage investments to manage shortterm peak loads and long-term seasonal loads and prices in gas markets. Nonetheless, economic benefits for consumers are dependent on market conditions. Overall, our results provide some suggestions on investments in new gas facilities, which are of interest to policy-makers and market participants

A Mixed Methods Study of Endometriosis: Patient Experience and Provider Awareness

Endometriosis is a serious yet understudied medical condition impacting hundreds of millions of women around the world. We used a mixed methods approach to better understand provider’s perceptions of the disease, as well as patient’s experiences with the disease. The study consisted of two parts. The first was a quantitative analysis of providers, in which participants completed a brief survey to assess their perception of the prevalence of endometriosis. Fifty-three providers completed surveys. Analysis of the survey data included calculating means and frequencies of each item, as well as determining providers’ prevalence estimates of endometriosis and whether this estimate varied by sub-specialty, number of years in practice, and gender. All quantitative analyses were conducted using SPSS. Survey results indicated that only six of the 53 providers accurately identified the prevalence of endometriosis. The second part of the study involved in-depth, qualitative interviews with both providers and patients. Four providers and 12 patients participated in the interview process. For the provider and patient interviews, code books were created and used to analyze the responses to identify recurring themes. Emergent themes in the provider interviews included, limited training about endometriosis, the difficulty of making a diagnosis, referral process, patient-provider dynamic, and the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration. Emergent themes from patients included, the mental aspect of the disease, lack of confidence in the healthcare system, concerns about fertility, self-advocacy, quality of life, being adverse to hormonal therapies, feelings of dismissiveness by providers, the financial impact of the disease, limited treatment options, and lack of awareness. Findings of this study highlighted some of the major issues which currently contribute to its public health burden, and can allow clinicians to foster change in their current practice with the aim of increasing awareness, issuing more timely and accurate diagnoses, and a call to action for investment and funding for research that will move the field forward and ultimately improve patient outcomes

I destinatari delle sanzioni convenzionali nel T.U. sulla rappresentanza = The recipients of the conventional sanctions in the T.U. on representation. WP C.S.D.L.E. “Massimo D’Antona”.IT – 230/2014

The paper focuses on whether or not to provide for a system of sanctions to ensure compliance with the agreements signed by the associations of employees and employers. In fact, the current social and economic system in Italy requires the overcoming of the traditional conflict in industrial relations to ensure the maintenance of employment levels and an efficient and competitive productivity. For these reasons, the “Testo Unico sulla rappresentatività”, the important Consolidated agreement signed the 10th of January 2014, encourages the national trade unions to establish appropriate sanctions in case of violations of the terms. First of all, it is necessary to identify the addressees of the sanctions: the agreement exclude the liability of individual workers, so there may be only collective sanctions against confederations or national associations or trade union representatives in the company

Short-term Risk Management for Electricity Retailers Under Rising Shares of Decentralized Solar Generation

Electricity retailers face increasing uncertainty due to the ongoing expansion of unpredictable, distributed generation in the residential sector. We analyze how increasing levels of households\u27 solar PV self-generation affect the short-term decisionmaking and associated risk exposure of electricity retailers in day-ahead and intraday markets. First, we develop a stochastic model accounting for correlations between solar load, residual load and price in sequentially nested wholesale spot markets across seasons and type of day. Second, we develop a computationally tractable twostage stochastic mixed-integer optimization model to investigate the trading portfolio and risk optimization problem faced by retailers. Through conditional value-at-risk we assess retailers\u27 profitability and risk exposure to different levels of PV self-generation by assuming different retail tariff schemes. We find risk-hedging trading strategies and tariffs to have greater impact in Summer and with low levels of residual load in the system, i.e. when the solar generation uncertainty affect more the households demand to be served and the wholesale spot prices. The study is innovative in unveiling the potential of dynamic electricity tariffs, which are indexed to spot prices, to sustain a high penetration of renewable energy source while promoting risk sharing between customer and retailer. Our findings have implications for electricity retailers facing load and revenue risks in wholesale spot markets, likewise for regulators and policy-makers interested in electricity market design